New Jersey’s Nail-Biter Governor Contest Underscores Democratic Weakness
In Red Bank, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli makes the third stop of his five-stop “Diner Tour”—though this venue leans more upscale, a bar-restaurant hybrid. The room is unexpectedly lively for a midweek afternoon, with a crowd that doesn’t shy away from cocktails. Ciattarelli owes much of his nomination to his allegiance to Trump, yet the former president’s approval in New Jersey lingers at just 36%. When asked if he wants Trump campaigning in the state as the election winds down, Ciattarelli offers a measured response: “He’s helping us,” he says, sidestepping the question. Pressed further, he adds, “We’re working in partnership with the White House to do whatever works for the campaign,” before turning and exiting.
Meanwhile, Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill began the day in Atlantic City and is now in Belleville for a county Democratic dinner. The four-term congresswoman—a former Navy helicopter pilot and federal prosecutor—is disciplined and methodical, sticking to her prepared talking points. But when the subject of Trump arises, Sherrill relaxes back, grimaces, and emits a spontaneous, guttural “Unnhhhh”—a raw, humorous, and revealing reaction that captures just how personally invested she is in this high-stakes race.
Local issues are weighing heavily on the race, from rising electricity costs to tax increases implemented by outgoing two-term Democratic Governor Phil Murphy. Yet New Jersey’s gubernatorial contest is drawing national attention as one of only two statewide off-year elections in 2025, and it’s considerably tighter than the other, in Virginia, where Democrat Abigail Spanberger holds a comfortable lead. Mikie Sherrill has generally maintained a lead in most polls—usually by around five points—but longtime state political observer David Wildstein, founder and editor of the New Jersey Globe, warns the race could be even closer than numbers suggest. “I just caution everybody how wrong Jersey polls have been lately,” he notes. “A week before the 2024 presidential election, Kamala Harris was double digits ahead, and Trump came within six.”
That recent track record suggests the race could be tighter than it appears. Another factor is the long-term erosion of New Jersey’s Democratic registration, as independent voters have steadily grown to become the state’s second-largest group. Adding to Sherrill’s challenges, no party—Democrat or Republican—has secured a third consecutive term in the governor’s office in New Jersey since 1961.
“If Trump weren’t in the White House, Ciattarelli would be leading by 12 or 15 points,” says Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, who ran in last spring’s Democratic gubernatorial primary and now supports Sherrill. “Jack is running a strong campaign, but the deal he made with Trump to secure the nomination could ultimately cost him the race.” In 2015, Ciattarelli called Trump a “charlatan,” and in 2016, he suggested Trump should drop out of the presidential race. Yet last year he endorsed Trump’s bid, a move that helped him secure the president’s backing in the Republican primary this year.
 |
| Key Takeaways from New Jersey’s First Gubernatorial Debate |
Sherrill has consistently cast her opponent as a Trump loyalist, and the president recently provided her a political opening by halting the $16 billion Gateway Tunnel project, which would have eased commutes to New York City for thousands of New Jersey residents. Ciattarelli initially indicated he would not challenge the decision, giving Sherrill a platform to highlight her leadership. “I fought tooth and nail for this for years as a congresswoman,” she told me in Belleville. “We finally secured the federal share. This could support nearly 100,000 jobs. But Jack’s position has basically been, ‘It’s not a New Jersey problem.’ Whose problem is it, then? New Jersey wants a leader, not a lackey—and that’s what he’s shown himself to be.”
The campaign has been heated, with Ciattarelli and his allies accusing Sherrill of prioritizing green energy at any cost and misrepresenting her involvement in a Naval Academy cheating scandal from her undergraduate years. In a 1994 incident, Sherrill did not walk at her graduation to avoid implicating classmates; Ciattarelli’s ads have implied that this reflects poorly on her, despite her decade-long service as a Naval officer.
On the trail, Ciattarelli presents a more personable image. In Red Bank, he worked the crowd, signing autographs and posing for photos—including one with a man wearing a T-shirt featuring Trump and Mike Tyson. When a woman with a back brace stopped by, Ciattarelli quipped, “It wasn’t a tax burden from the Democrats that broke your back?”—an off-the-cuff line that drew laughs while underscoring his campaign’s informal, hands-on style.
Ciattarelli nearly toppled Murphy in 2021, seizing on opposition to COVID-19 mask and vaccine mandates. This year, he appears intent on keeping the campaign focused squarely within New Jersey. “I get the narrative about the national implications for Trump and next year’s midterms,” he told me in Red Bank. “But there’s only one implication I care about—the future of New Jersey. We’ve got to win this race and steer the state in a different direction.” Moments later, he was on his way to a rally in East Brunswick.
Sherrill wrapped her day in West Orange, a North Jersey middle-class town, speaking to roughly 150 attendees packed into the pews of the Nia Fellowship Baptist Church. The atmosphere was electric, a mix of energy and frustration. After more than twelve hours on the road, Sherrill showed no signs of fatigue; if anything, she seemed energized and relaxed. “I’m not going to ask you to vote, because if you’ve come out tonight and you’re not voting, we’re in serious trouble,” she quipped, drawing laughter from the crowd. She addressed topics ranging from phonics instruction in schools to reducing bureaucratic hurdles for small businesses, but concluded with a message that was both political and patriotic. “The world over knows about the American Dream,” she said. “It’s not too much to ask, yet at every turn we see it under attack from Washington, D.C. I’m running for governor to draw the line—here in New Jersey, not there, not now.”
 |
| Tight Contest Emerges in New Jersey Governor’s Race |
The race, insiders say, will likely hinge on whether suburban voters attribute their frustrations to Trenton—which would favor Ciattarelli—or to Washington, which would benefit Sherrill. But the stakes go beyond state politics. Julie Roginsky, a veteran Democratic strategist in New Jersey, has noted a rightward shift among Latino voters since 2021, which helped Trump last year. “Will that continue?” she asks. “Or are Latino voters increasingly alarmed by what they see coming from Washington?” Another top Democratic strategist in the state worries about what the outcome could reveal about Trump’s national influence. “We’re in the middle of a government shutdown,” he notes. “If New Jersey—an off-year election, after everything Trump has done—can’t elect a Democrat, then it shows just how acclimated we’ve become, almost immune, to his actions.”
Read More...
> King Charles Just Ended Prince Andrew’s Royal Run
> Variety’s Power of Women Event Celebrates How Women’s Success Strengthens Communities
0 Comments